Weekly Market Update
Data on new home sales and jobless claims highlighted a quiet week where the markets were closed on Wednesday for Christmas. Read on for these top stories.
New Homes Sales Bounced Back in November
Reemployment Harder to Find Once Let Go
New Home Sales Bounced Back in November
Signed contracts on new homes rebounded in November, up 5.9% from October when the hurricanes in the southern region had delayed some deals. Contract signings were also up 8.7% when compared to November of last year.
What’s the bottom line? There were 490,000 new homes for sale at the end of November, which was up slightly from 480,000 in October. However, only 120,000 were completed, with the rest either under construction or not even started yet, so more available supply is still needed to meet buyer demand, especially given the historically low number of existing homes for sale.
The median sales price was down 5.4% from October and 6.3% from a year ago, though this was not due to a lack of buyer demand or falling home prices, which continue to rise nationwide per Case-Shiller and other indexes. The median sales price represents the middle price home that sold, meaning it’s influenced by the mix of sales in any given month. November’s decline in the median sales price stems from the bounce back in sales in many of the storm impacted areas, where more modestly priced homes sold.
Reemployment Harder to Find Once Let Go
Initial Jobless Claims inched down by 1,000 in the latest week, as 219,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, Continuing Claims were a different story, as they surged by 46,000 to top 1.9 million, hitting a three-year high.
What’s the bottom line? While the low level of Initial Claims shows that businesses are holding on to their employees, the rising number of people remaining on benefits suggests that jobs have become harder to find for people who are let go. This elevated trend in Continuing Claims has been persistent, as they have topped 1.8 million since the start of June (29 consecutive weeks).
The rise in Continuing Claims also coincides with the increase we’ve seen in the median duration of unemployment, which is up 21% in the last seven months and at the highest level since 2021 at 10.5 weeks.
What to Look for This Week
Data on Pending Home Sales (Monday), home price appreciation (Tuesday) and the latest Jobless Claims (Thursday) highlight another quiet week where the markets are closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds ended last week trading in a range with a floor at 100.17 and a ceiling of resistance at 100.43. The 10-year ended last week above the 4.588% Fibonacci level, trading near the next ceiling at 4.636%.
